The failure to complete an extension during training camp might have seismic repercussions.
After the second day of training camp, the Miami Dolphins saw one significant change from the first. Tua Tagovailoa, the quarterback, skipped all drills, including 7 on 7 and 11 on 11.
The Dolphins quarterback and the team are at odds over a contract, which is why he decided to “hold in.” The Dolphins and Tagovailoa’s agency are still in regular communication and are engaged in negotiations, but they are still far from reaching an agreement.
According to a another report, the Dolphins have not “offered market value” comparable to the deals involving Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff.
Both sides of the table are now flexing their leverage muscles and seeing whether the other side blinks first because Tagovailoa did not participate in the second day of training camp. A mess is going to ensue.
Finish It Right Away
Many had predicted at the beginning of the offseason that Tagovailoa and the Dolphins would work out a deal somewhere around $50 million, but things took a turn for the worse when the salary ceiling nearly increased in percentage terms compared to the annual norm.
Chris Kouffman hinted at this on X and described how it appeared from both sides’ perspectives at this point.
I’ve written much on here about the Tua Tagovailoa contract situation and I don’t want to rehash the same arguments. But right now what I want to focus on is the 14% rise in salary cap that surprised everyone (including teams) and its follow-on effects. This has only just begun.…
— Chris Kouffman (@ckparrot) July 25, 2024
What does Tagovailoa and the Dolphins stand to gain from this? It means, and he has every right to feel this way, that Tagovailoa will not accept what was previously seen as a good deal at the beginning of the summer.
Franchise quarterbacks are typically preferred by teams to be finished early. You will ultimately have to pay more the longer you wait. Jerry Jones, who signed the Dak Prescott contract in 2021, could vouch for that.
Which Choices Are There?
There are two possible outcomes for the Dolphins in this situation.
Option 1: Give Tagovailoa an annual salary of about $55 million with guarantees akin to those in the Trevor Lawrence contract. Your franchise quarterback is content and ready for the season when you choose this option.
All quarterbacks in the league are just one play away from suffering an injury, even though you are taking a chance with his health. That is simply the job’s nature. This offer will age like a superb wine in a few years, even though you could be overpaying today.
Option 2: Allow Tagovailoa to exercise his option for a fifth year. The issue with this strategy is that you are left in a worse scenario if he records comparable stats and wins a postseason game.
The pay cap will continue to rise, but there is no assurance that it would be more like 7% as opposed to the 13% increase Kouffman mentioned between 2023 and 2024. Next year at this time, $55 million will be the deal’s floor rather than its sweet spot.
By then, Jordan Love will have signed his contract, and other elite quarterbacks might seek out additional agreements beyond those reached this offseason. Next year, the Dolphins may have to spend closer to $60 million a year, which will be even more difficult to bear.
Option 3: The Dolphins refuse to budge and conclude that Taopvailoa is not deserving of $55+ million in annual guaranteed income. A disgruntled quarterback who is motivated to take all the necessary precautions to stay healthy sees out the season with him. 2024 is a dice toss that might go either way.
Then, as Omar Kelly stated, they may place him under a franchise tag or transition tag and hope no one bids against them, or they could make him available outright at the end of this year.
If they choose that route, they would have to start again at the most crucial position and lose the best quarterback they have had in 25 years.
Though such are rare instances, there is always a chance a quarterback may become available and fit in just as well as Matt Stafford did with the Los Angeles Rams or that the San Francisco 49ers could strike gold with a late selection in Brock Purdy.
What is Happening?
It is best to bite the bullet and give Tua Tagovailoa the money. Close this deal right away. He is a franchise quarterback with ample evidence to guide the squad for the foreseeable future.
He is still young and continues to improve annually. Both the coaching staff and the team support him. As the team’s leader, he is reliant on him to ensure victory.
Roll the dice on him, look back in a few years, and know that you got a good deal on your franchise quarterback before the position becomes even more indentured the following season.