The Boston Red Sox’s acquisition of veteran lefty James Paxton during the trade deadline has put them in buyer mode.
With their first action prior to the deadline, the Tampa Bay Rays have clearly entered the sell mode. They sent outfielder Randy Arozarena to the Mariners, who still has a few years left on his deal. We reasoned that the two opponents might be able to support one another.
The Sox thought Zach Eflin was a smart target and tried to re-sign him after the Rays completed their free agent agreement in 2022. But on Friday night, Eflin was moved across the division to the Baltimore Orioles, just as fast as Boston fans felt it may be a fit.
Red Sox News: Zach Eflin, a possible trade target, was moved to the Orioles prior to the deadline.
Full trade, per ESPN sources:
Baltimore Orioles receive: right-handed starter Zach Eflin
Tampa Bay Rays receive: outfielder Matthew Etzel, right-handed pitcher Jackson Baumeister and superutilityman Mac Horvath.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 26, 2024
Boston would have been better off with a six-man rotation, and with Eflin’s experience, that rotation would have been ideal. Kutter Crawford will surpass his career-high innings in a few more starts, while Tanner Houck has already surpassed it for a single season. The addition of a sixth pitcher will allow Boston’s current starters to get extra rest, something that has helped Crawford.
In any case, Paxton shouldn’t be the only pitcher signed by Boston prior to July 30. Though he’s a seasoned lefty and one of the front office’s main targets for a deadline acquisition, the Sox shouldn’t rely just on him.
Eflin, who is signed through 2025, would have also been a perfect fit. This season, the 30-year-old has pitched 110 innings with an ERA of 4.09. Baseball Savant reports that he has walked 13 batters and struck out 87, for a 99th percentile walk rate. He depends mostly on his sinker, cutter, and curveball and uses his four-seamer just over nine percent of the time. Andrew Bailey might assist him refine his arsenal of six pitches.
December 2022 saw the signing of Eflin to the highest-paid contract in Rays history, a three-year, $40 million deal. It’s common for Tampa Bay to release high-priced players, and it seems like Eflin’s deal is designed with that in mind. The Rays paid him $11 million for the first two years of the contract; he is now owed $18 million for the 2025 campaign. He was eminently attainable by any team ready to swallow that cash. Boston has been inexpensive, but they currently have salary space.
The Red Sox had the financial capacity to pay Eflin’s compensation. At the end of the season, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Nick Pivetta, and a few more Sox will become free agents. Getting Eflin now would have reduced the need to look for pitching when free agency opens this upcoming winter.
Rather, they will still have to contend with Eflin as a division rival on a far superior Orioles team. Though we’ll see what Breslow has up his sleeve over the next several days, we can’t say this enhances Boston’s prospects of making the playoffs.