Lewis Hamilton claims that practically anything may happen in the second half of the 2024 world championship season because the top four Formula One teams are now so evenly matched.
Max Verstappen promptly won back-to-back races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, and it appeared certain that Red Bull would rule the competition for a second year running when the season began in March.
Subsequently, the season deviated from the original plan, as Carlos Sainz emerged victorious in Australia following an appendectomy, followed by Verstappen appearing to regain control in China and Japan.
However, as the season has gone on, McLaren’s MCL38 has surpassed the RB20 as the fastest vehicle on the circuit with to victories from Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, and Charles Leclerc fulfilled a lifelong ambition by winning in Monaco.
Mercedes, meanwhile, has finally found their winning ways again with to two victories from Hamilton and one from George Russell. Compared to the Red Bull blowout in 2023, it means there have been seven different victors from four different teams thus far.
Before the summer break, which will give drivers and teams a much-needed break, the thrills, spills, and shocks didn’t even slow down. Hamilton anticipates even greater levels of competition in the future.
After Russell was disqualified for driving an underweight car at Spa, Hamilton took over the race and commented, “It’s really fantastic for the sport to be having such close teams and drivers.”
Verstappen still has a 78-point lead over Norris, but Leclerc, Piastri, Sainz, and Hamilton are all pursuing him. “The pedigree of drivers at the top today are really elite and amazing,” Hamilton continued.
If Mercedes had gotten off to a stronger and more reliable start, things might have been even more competitive. “After our start to the season, we didn’t think we would be competing with the McLarens or the Red Bulls at this point.”
Hamilton said, “It’s going to be one hell of a second half of the season for sure, given that we have closed up and are.”
Christian Horner is obviously concerned about how close things are today, even though Red Bull’s great start has given them a significant early points advantage and may be enough to fend off challengers over the second half of the calendar.
We’ve gone more than half way if you look back on the first half of the year. With seven Grand Prix victories. We have two or three Sprint race victories. We’re ahead in both titles,” Horner declared this past week.
“We know where we need to focus and improve, and that’s what everyone’s doing,” he continued. “But over the past few weeks, that [lead in the] constructors has diminished somewhat, and that’s where our focus is.”
“I think it’s great for the sport that there are four teams fighting,” he said. It was practically a given that convergence will occur when regulations were consistent.
He went on, “The teams have always come together because of convergence.” “If you go over the history of Formula One, I recall Ron Dennis slamming the drum when I entered the sport in 2005.
He quoted previous eras of Ferrari, Red Bull (under Jean Todt), and Mercedes as examples of how “convergence has always brought the teams together.” “McLaren had the best car [at McLaren] at that time,” he remarked.
He said, “You inevitably reach the top of the curve.” Next year will see more convergence, but I believe that everyone is reaching the peak of the curve.
“Currently, it’s Mercedes one week, McLaren one week, and Red Bull one week,” he continued. “It keeps shifting because Ferrari hasn’t been seen in a while.”
Naturally, there will be a significant regulatory change in 2026 that will result in divergence, Horner continued. “But in the interim, I believe that the four teams will play each other exclusively for the next 18 months.”