A low-drag wing that can help you defend or overtake in sectors 1 and 3? or a better tire deg with a greater downforce setup that would enable you to be equally as fast over the lap because of your speed in sector 2’s long, fast corners?
This year’s Spa downforce conundrum between the extremely similar Red Bull and McLaren vehicles is especially pressing. With Max Verstappen’s rebuilt power unit resulting in a 10-place grid penalty, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri of McLaren are definitely the favorites.
Even though Verstappen prevailed here with a five-place penalty last year and triumphed here from as low as 14th on the grid (in 2022), that was before Red Bull had a significant performance advantage.
How do they compare this time, and what hints can we get as to what their potential downforce decisions might be?
As Verstappen’s optimal starting position is eleventh, it makes sense that Red Bull would choose a setup with very little downforce. Not at all. In FP1, Verstappen had the largest wing of all four of the top teams, and he continued to run with it in FP2.
Oscar Piastri trailed McLaren by almost 0.7 seconds on a single lap speed on the soft tyre during the first session because the team used relatively little downforce. However, in the second session, both Piastri and Lando Norris made progress toward a wing level more akin to Verstappen’s. Suddenly, the McLarens were leading, with Lando Norris holding a lead of a few tenths over Verstappen, who was now running the normal “cannon” bodywork rather than the updated vehicle that was spotted in Hungary.
Ignore the soft compound comparison between them as it reflected just the first four laps of the opposite approaches to what would be a much longer stint in reality. Piastri hit it hard right away, while Verstappen gave the tyres a very gentle introduction. The FP2 long runs also demonstrated this McLaren form, with Piastri averaging about 0.4s faster than Verstappen over the same number of laps on the same Medium C3 tyre compound.
Even though straightline speed was lost, more downforce resulted in faster lap timings for both the long run and the single lap.
At least for Red Bull and McLaren, there are likely three variables for this convergence to the higher downforce end of the Spa scale: 1. It is predicted to be rainy on Saturday, which will force you to fly farther. 2) The resurfaced track had much greater tire deg than most anticipated, which further emphasizes the advantages of having more wing. As demonstrated on multiple occasions thus far this season, Red Bull and McLaren, who have a significant lead over Mercedes and Ferrari, appear to be making decisions based on what they need to counter one another.
In response to the downforce query, Norris made a similar suggestion. “You want more downforce when it’s raining, but maybe that’s the right direction to go in any case.” Although Norris was late for his long run on soft tires, it’s likely that the soft tires are unimportant nevertheless. Tire deg indicates that the medium and hard will be favored in even the race that is usually a two-stop affair in the dry.
Just Red Bull, out of the top four teams, put forth the most effort. Verstappen and Sergio Perez both attempted it in the first practice session, and Verstappen showed off his speed during a three-lap race fuel simulation. Was there a tactical error there? Given that the temperature on the new surface was significantly greater than anticipated, McLaren (together with Ferrari and Mercedes) has retained both sets of hards. Possibly, medium/hard/hard will prove to be the best option. Provided that the race day remains dry, as the present forecast indicates it will be.
Despite his powerful form, Norris did not feel very comfortable. “I don’t feel really at ease in a car. We must examine a few issues. Although it appears to be in sync on the timing sheets, I’m hoping to improve upon it tomorrow. It doesn’t seem to need anything. It’s not like we have to swap out the entire vehicle in one night. Simply put, I’m not quite ready to go out there and kill it.
a higher amount of downforce than Ferrari, although Ferrari appeared quicker on Friday’s form, lagging behind McLaren and Red Bull. George Russell and Lewis Hamilton were both complaining about bouncing when using their freshly upgraded diffuser and floor edge.Trackside chief Andrew Shovlin for Merc said, “We’re struggling across the complete speed range of corners rather than in specific corners and the long run isn’t where we want it to be either. If there is wet running, we probably won’t get a chance to review the work we already have a ton of on our plate.
In the midst of all this discussion about downforce levels, plank wear is a factor that shouldn’t be disregarded. Both Verstappen and Perez had to exercise extreme caution at Eau Rouge during the race last year due to Red Bull’s superior downforce, which gave them a devastating edge in single lap performance.
To guarantee the car was legal at the end of the race, they were each lifting off through there to minimize the heavy grounding of the plank in the compression. With such a lead over the lap, it was a luxury they could afford.
That benefit is no longer available. However, Red Bull at least knows how to handle it now. Perez may have mentioned how much Norris’ vehicle was grounding there. It was also really noticeable on both Mercedes. Therefore, it can come down to how much downforce you are willing to run and how you handle it after.
How can you decide that if you are McLaren or Red Bull, both sizing up the other? particularly if FP3 is damp?
Given that Verstappen is only allowed to start in 11th place, McLaren may want to err on the side of caution. Then and only then might you have to worry about any confusing rivalry among your own drivers. It’s a game theory gold mine, especially considering that, given the slipstream Les Combes will be taking up, you probably shouldn’t be leading into La Source on the opening lap.